Evaluation of BASINS/HSPF Runoff Predictions

from a Claypan Agricultural Watershed

 

 

Seungbin Hong

 

Civil & Environmental Engineering

Utah State University

 

Term Project

CEE 6440 GIS in Water Resources

 

 

 

 

 

Table of Contents

 

1.            Introduction

a.            Importance of Watershed modeling

b.            Brief discussion of BASINS/HSPF

c.            Objectives

 

2.            Site Description

a.            Area

b.            Soil Type

c.            Land use

d.            Watershed Topographic

 

3.            Evaluation of BASINS default Parameters

 

4.            Sensitivity Analysis

 

5.            Model Calibration and Evaluation

6.            Conclusion

 

 

 

  1. Introduction

 

    1. Importance of watershed modeling

 

A watershed is the geographic area of land where all of the water that is under it or drains off it goes into the same place. This is a drainage basin that divides the landscape into hydrologically defined areas. The U.S. is divided of subdivided into successively smaller hydrologic units which are classified in 4 levels, Regions, Subregions, Accounting Units, and Cataloging Units.

Watershed models typically simulate flow as a series of hydrologic and hydraulic processes. These processes include surface runoff and associated water quality characteristics.

Watershed management is a control of the quality and quantity of water and the effective human use of water resources within a watershed. Urbanization can alter the hydrology of a watershed, particularly the magnitude and frequency of storm related flooding. Quantifying changes in stream flow that result from urbanization are critical for planning and designing bridges, culverts, storm water-drainage systems, detention basins, and other storm water-management facilities. Because data on storm-runoff volume and flood flow in specific areas are commonly unavailable, and future changes in these flow characteristics that result from urbanization cannot be measured directly, planners and engineers have come to rely on computerized models for this information.

 

    1. Brief discussion of BASINS/HSPF

 

The Hydrologic Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) is one of the most commonly used hydrologic models. Due to its complexity HSPF requires extensive data input for an accurate simulation. To facilitate use of the HSPF model, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a management system which uses the storage capabilities of the ArcView Grographic Information System to store, display, and manipulate a database for the entire United States. This system, called Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Non-point Sources (BASINS), was released in 1996 and includes NPSM (a modified version of HSPF), QUAL2E, and TOXIROUTE. The BASINS is a multipurpose environmental analysis system for use by regional, state, and local agencies in performing watershed and water quality based studies. 

Components of BASINS are;

 

                                                                                i.            Nationally derived databases with Data Extraction tools and Project Builders

                                                                              ii.            Assessment Tools (TARGET, ASSESS, and Data Mining) that address large and small scale characterization needs

                                                                            iii.            BASINS Utilities including watershed Delineation, Import, Landuse reclassification, DEM reclassification

                                                                             iv.            Watershed Characterization Reports that facilitate compilation and output of information on selected watersheds

                                                                               v.            Non-Point Source Model (NPSM) and postprocessor, which provide integrated assessment of watershed loading and transport

                                                                             vi.            Water Quality Models including TOXIROUTE and QUAL2E

 

The assessment component, working under the GIS umbrella, allows users to quickly evaluate selected areas, organize information, and display result.

The BASINS Non-Point Source Model (NPSM) is a planning-level watershed model that integrates both point and nonpoint sources. It is capable of simulating nonpoint sources runoff and associated pollutant loadings, accounting for point source discharges, and performing flow and water quality routing through stream reaches and well-mixed reservoirs. NSPM uses most of the simulation capabilities of the HSPF. HSPF is a continuous simulation model for watershed hydrology and water quality on and in the soil surface and in streams and surface and surface water reservoirs and streams. This model considers a basin or watershed comprising of 2 segments: land segment which including pervious and impervious and water body (streams, lakes, reservoirs). The main components of HSPF are three modules, PERLAND that simulates pervious land segment, IMPLAND that simulates impervious land segment, and RCHRES that routes runoff through reservoir while simulating instream processes.

In this project, pervious land segment is considered. The hydrologic components of HSPF are rainfall or now, interception, depression storage, evapotranspiration, infiltration, surface storage, runoff, interflow, and groundwater flow.

 

    1. Objectives of this project

 

The objectives of this project are to run BASIN/HSPF modeling program and evaluate runoff predictions using BASINS default parameters. First using BASINS watershed delineation tool, the Crooked Creek, a sub-watershed within HUC 07110005, is delineated. An input file, User Control Input (UCI), including BASINS default parameters, is created by running NPSM. A sensitivity evaluation is performed to analyze which parameters would be the most sensitive. Based on this sensitivity evaluation, the model is calibrated with changing sensitive parameters for the Crooked Creek Watershed.

 

 

  1. Site Description

 

    1. Area

 

The study area for the watershed model is the Crooked Creek. The Crooked Creek is located within Monroe and Shelby County in North Central Missouri. The watershed encompasses 111 sq.mi. (71,204 acres) and is a tributary of the North Fork of the Salt River, which empties into Mark Twain Lake just upstream of the intake for the Clarence Cannon Wholesale Water Commission (CCWWC) which provides over 2.3 million gallons per day of drinking water to a 12 county area.

 

    1. Soil Type

 

The major soil type of this projected area is Mexico Silt Loam. Sub-surface soil includes sandy clays and fine clays consisting of Koalinite and Bentonite. The following figure is for the percent of Silt and Clay and the soil permeability by map unit in the delineated sub-watershed, Crooked Creek.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table Soil statistics - Summary by subwatershed ( Parameter: Permeability (in/hr)).

 

 

=============================================================

 

Statistics          07110005008         Composite          

 

-------------------------------------------------------------

Area (acre)         70038               70038              

 

Mean                0.25                0.25               

 

Min                 0.23                0.23               

 

Max                 0.91                0.91               

 

=============================================================

Note: Type of Estimate: Mean; Components: Area-weighted;  Layers: Depth-integration.

 

 

 

 

Table Soil distribution by STATSGO Map Unit.

 

=================================================================================

 

Map Unit            Area (acre)                   Percent Silt and Clay (%)    

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Subwatershed: 07110005008

 

MO018               6077                          65.77                        

MO023               63877                         86.00                        

MO029               84                            89.68                        

 

 

=================================================================================

Note: Type of Estimate: Mean; Components: Area-weighted;  Layers: Depth-integration.

 

 

 

    1. Land use

 

BASINS 2.0 interface land use data was downloaded from the BASINS web site (USEPA). The default land use data  supplied in BASINS was obtained from the USGS Geographic Information Retrieval and Analysis System (GIRAS) and uses the Anderson Level I and II classification systems. The GIRAS land use data is based upon data collected by the USGS in the 1970’s. This land use data was applied for the calibration period.

Multi Resolution Land Characterization (MRLC) land use data was imported into the BASINS system for simulation periods beyond 1990. This data was taken from the Watershed Characterization System (WCS) (USEPA), which is interfaced with the Arc View 3.0 package. The MRLC land use information data is based on Landsat Thematic Mapper digital images and utilizes a modified Anderson Level I and II system for classification.

Land use in Crooked Creek is calculated by BASINS Landuse Distribution Report. The following table and Figure are obtained.

 

Land Use Name and Code

Area (acres)

Urban or Built-up Land

RESIDENTIAL – 11

COMMERCIAL AND SERVICES – 12

INDUSTRIAL – 13

OTHER URBAN OR BUILT-UP – 17

Subtotal

 

438

31

38

66

573

Agricultural Land

CROPLAND AND PASTURE – 21

Subtotal

 

63661

63661

Forest Land

DECIDUOUS FOREST LAND – 41

Subtotal

 

5970

5970

Total

70204

 

 

 

 

    1. Watershed Topographic

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. Evaluation of BASINS default Parameters

Delineation of the watershed was based on the RF1 and RF3 reach networks along with the watershed topography. The reach networks are characterized by their complexity, with RF1 networks containing only major streams whereas RF3 networks include minor streams and tributaries. The following figure shows the delineated sub-watershed, Crooked Creek, from Catalog Unit #07110005.

To evaluate the model for the Crooked Creek Watershed, NPSM is performed with the default parameters. The NSPM also requires other meterological data; including evaporation, temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, dew point temperature, and cloud cover. These variables must be supplied in the Watershed Data Management (WDM) input file in order to run the NSPM model. Meteorological data was given from the Shelbina weather station. Meteorological data was simulated for the years 1980 ~ 1995. Output variables were selected “Pervious Agricultural Land” for land use and used “yearly” for print interval. The default parameters are largely divided into three categories: Water Balance, Groundwater, and Surface Runoff. In the following table, the key parameters are indicated by categories.

 

 

Categories

Parameters

Water Balance

LZSN, LZETP, INFILT, DEEPFR

Groundwater

INFILT, AGWRC, DEEPFR, BASETP

Surface Runoff

UZSN, INTFLW, IRC, LUSR, NSUR, SLSUR

 

 

In the following table, definition, default value, and range of each parameter which is considered in performing a model for the Crooked Creek Watershed are shown.

 

Data Group

Symbol

Definition

Default

Value

Minimum

Value

Maximum

Value

 

PWAT-

PARM2

 

LZSN

Lower zone nominal storage

14.10

0.01

100.0

INFILT

Index to the infiltration capacity of the soil

0.16

0.0001

100.0

LSUR

Length of the assumed overland flow plane

300

1.0

None

SLSUR

Slope

0.035

0.0000001

10.0

AGWRC

Basic groundwater recession rate if KVARY is 0 and there is no inflow to groundwater

0.98

0.001

0.999

PWAT-

PARM3

DEEPFR

Fraction of groundwater inflow which will enter deep (inactive) groundwater and be lost

0.10

0.0

1.0

BASETP

Fraction of potential E-T which can be satisfied from baseflow (groundwater outflow)

0.02

0.0

1.0

 

PWAT-

PARM4

UZSN

Upper zone nominal storage

1.1280

0.01

10.0

NSUR

Manning’s n for the assumed overland flow plane

0.02

0.001

1.0

INTFW

Interflow inflow parameter

0.75

0.0

None

IRC

Interflow recession parameter

0.5

1.0E-30

0.999

LZETP

Lower zone E-T parameter. It is an index to the density of deep-rooted vegetation

0.10

0.0

0.999

 

 

The next table is showing the difference (%) of between measured value and predicted value using BASINS default parameter.

                                                          

 

PERO*

SURO*

Base Flow*

Measured Value

287.59

244.45

43.14

Predicted Value

298.64

32.14

266.49

Difference %

-4%

87%

-518%

                                                                                         * PERO ; Total outflow (m3/s)

                                                                                             SURO ; Surface outflow(m3/s)

                                                                                             Base flow ; IFWO (Interflow) + AGWO (Groundwater flow) (m3/s)

 

4. Sensitivity Analysis

As you see the above table, there are very big differences on the PERO, SURO, and Base Flow. Before performing a calibration for the model, sensitivity analysis is needed for helping calibrate the Crooked Creek Watershed Model to its measured data. For this analysis, the default values are changed in the range of around 50% to 200%.

In the following table, the result of sensitivity analysis is shown.

 

                                                                                                                                                       

Symbol

Value

PERO    (m3/s)

SURO   (m3/s)

Base Flow (m3/s)

LZSN

14.10*

12.05

25

298.64

310.67

285.51

32.14

37.72

28.70

266.5

272.95

256.81

LZETP

0.1*

0.05

0.2

298.64

298.64

298.64

32.14

32.14

32.14

266.50

266.50

266.50

INFILT

0.16*

0.08

0.32

298.64

289.63

311.26

32.14

60.84

13.36

266.50

228.79

297.90

DEEPFR

0.1*

0.05

0.16

298.64

313.37

280.96

32.14

32.14

32.14

266.50

281.23

248.82

AGWRC

0.98*

0.49

0.99 (max.)

298.64

305.30

295.22

32.14

31.84

32.14

266.50

273.46

263.08

BASETP

0.02*

0.01

0.04

298.64

303.16

290.40

32.14

31.56

33.31

266.50

271.60

257.09

UZSN

1.1280*

0.564

1.590

298.64

320.36

287.40

32.14

47.49

25.16

266.50

272.87

262.24

INTFW

0.75*

0.1875

0.375

298.64

297.33

297.33

32.14

42.09

42.05

266.50

255.24

255.28

IRC

0.5*

0.25

0.75

298.64

298.64

298.64

32.14

32.14

32.14

266.50

266.50

266.50

LSUR

300*

150

600

298.64

299.58

297.78

32.14

36.97

26.76

266.50

262.61

271.02

NSUR

0.02*

0.01

0.04

298.64

299.58

297.78

32.14

36.97

26.76

266.50

262.61

271.02

SLSUR

0.035*

0.0175

0.07

298.64

298.18

299.11

32.14

29.52

34.62

266.50

268.66

264.49

                                     *  Given default value in this project

 

 

From the above table, we recognized that the parameters, LZSN, DEEPFR, BASETP, and USZN are sensitive for this model on the watershed, whereas the parameters, LZETP, IRC are not sensitive.

 

5. Model Calibration and Evaluation.

After several trials, the original default values are revised for the suitable model. The revised parameter values are following in the table.

 

                                                                                                                  

Parameter

Default

Revised Default

LZSN

INFILT

LSUR

SLSUR

AGWRC

DEEPFR

BASETP

UZSN

NSUR

INTFW

IRC

LZETP

14.10

0.16

300

0.035

0.98

0.10

0.02

1.1280

0.02

0.75

0.5

0.1

18.5

0.009

300

0.035

0.96

0.1

0.08

1.25

0.01

0.65

0.5

0.1

PERO (m3/s)

SURO (m3/s)

Baseflow (m3/s)

298.64

32.143

266.50

287.20

243.58

43.62

 

 

The best result of the model using revised parameters for Crooked Creek Watershed is following.

 

 

PERO      (m3/s)

SURO      (m3/s)

Base Flow (m3/s)

Measured Value

287.59

244.45

43.14

Revised Value

287.20

243.58

43.62

Difference %

0.14%

0.36%

-1.11%

 

 

6. Conclusion

As you see the above table, the difference is much reduced in contrast with first difference by the default values. The model for Crooke Creek Watershed is now completely calibrated for the average of Total flow, Surface flow, and Groundwater over the years of from 1980 to 1995. 

According to “Crooked Creek Watershed Project,” an atrazine is concerning in this watershed, and concerns regarding sediment and nutrient loading are also increasing.

In next modeling, I will try to simulation with considering the environmental factors that currently threaten the watershed.

 

7.  Reference

Lahiou, M et al., Better Asseeement Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources. Version 2.0, Environmental Protection Agency, Nov. 1998

“Crooked Creek Watershed Project”  University of Missouri, Columbia  http://www.fse.missouri.edu/aseq/crroked_creek_summary.htm 

 

Data Sources

The Missouri Spatial Data Information  http://msdis.missouri.edu/

BASINS Input data  http://www.epa.gov/OST/BASINS/

Center for Agricultural Resource and Environmental Systems  http://cares.missouri.edu/